A frontal system will be developing over the central U.S. as we go into next week that has the potential to produce severe weather. There does exist some uncertainty in the exact timing of the front due to how fast the upper-level parent trough moves across the country. For now, we are looking at showers and storms moving through the area Tuesday into Wednesday. So, this could be another overnight system where you would need to have ways to receive weather alerts.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the area of concern on the Day 6 Outlook. The Baton Rouge area is under the 15% probability of severe weather. All modes of severe weather seem to be possible with current guidance showing favorable environments in and around the Mississippi Valley.
Areas within the orange outline below see a 30% probability of severe weather, basically equivalent to an enhance risk (3/5). This is only the 5th time a 30% probability area has been outlined on a Day 6 Outline since 2014, according to Elizabeth Leitmann, a forecaster for the SPC.
This forecast will have to be fine tuned as we get closer. One reason for some uncertainty is that the current area where this trough will come from is over the Western Pacific. Once it moves over our upper air network, where we can get observational data, the models will begin to obtain higher confidence in the system such as its strength, forward speed, and different forcing variables.
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