Democrat John Bel Edwards in the lead, according to new WVLA poll

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Democrat John Bel Edwards has a 20% lead over Senator David Vitter in the Louisiana Gubernatorial runoff, according to a survey released today by WVLA and JMC Analytics.

The brand new, statewide poll results confirm something that hasn’t happened in 7 years: A Democratic Governor could take office in Louisiana.

Today, WVLA released a survey of 600 likely voters, conducted by JMC analytics. When asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today, 52% of people chose State Representative John Bel Edwards. 32% chose Senator David Vitter, and 16% were undecided.

These numbers are surprising because they show that John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, will pick up more votes from former Republican candidates Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne than David Vitter, a fellow Republican.

The WVLA poll also asked undecided voters if they had a preference between the two candidates. 54% of them leaned toward John Bel Edwards at this point, while 35% leaned toward David Vitter.

Further questioning revealed that 24% of the people surveyed voted for a candidate besides John Bel Edwards or David Vitter in the Gubernatorial Primary.

These results are significant for both candidates as they prepare for the WVLA Statewide televised debate, set for 6:00 p.m. on Monday, November 16, 2015.

There were 600 completed responses to 11 poll questions– 75% came from landlines, while 25% came from cell phones.
The survey was conducted October 28-31. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.0%. The
demographic breakdown of the respondents was 67-29% white/black, while the party registration of respondents was 47-32% Democratic/Republican (21% Independents), and the gender breakdown was 55% female and 45% male. The geographic (which in this case was media markets as defined by Nielsen) breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 5% from Alexandria, 21% from Baton Rouge, 14% from Lafayette, 5% from Lake Charles, 9% from Monroe, 35% from New Orleans, and 11% from Shreveport.

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