Tracking the Tropics – With the latest NHC Advisory, the chance for development has jumped to 90%. A tropical depression will likely form by late Wednesday or early Thursday. Tropical, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be issued as early as tomorrow. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to fly through the area of disturbed weather tomorrow. More details should come from the flight.
As of right now, the path and intensity of Invest 92L remains slightly uncertain. Numerous scenarios could play out over the next 24-36 hours. Some long-range models take a more northerly path while others keep the system further south. Also, some models show Invest 92L strengthening into a strong tropical storm or possibly a weak hurricane before landfall. Right now, models are indicating that the area will see some upper-level support. Therefore, strengthening is likely in the coming days.
However, the biggest threat will be heavy rainfall. Currently, rain estimates sit in the 3″-6″ range with some local higher amounts for southeast Louisiana. Flash flooding could be a concern. Luckily for us, the rain will be spaced out over 3-4 days and the system is expect to jog through the area and not stall.