The tropics in the Atlantic are beginning to heat up as we inch closer towards the peak of the season. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently watching four areas for possible development over the next 7 days. Three are over the central Atlantic and one is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico.
A disturbance of showers and storms is currently north of Cuba, as of Friday evening. It is forecast to move westward and enter into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. It will move into an area with above-average sea surface temperatures and relatively lower wind wind shear. Some gradual development is possible over the western Gulf before moving towards the Texas coast. The NHC is giving it a 0-percent chance over the next 2 days and a 50 percent chance over the next 7 days. As of now, there no immediate impacts expected for Southeast Louisiana, however it may bring gusty winds to our area and coastal showers.
There are a few questions still regarding this easterly wave due to a ridge of high pressure that will be building over most of the Eastern U.S. This ridge looks to be rather strong and will likely center itself over the Central U.S.. The further south this ridge is, the least likely it is that Louisiana will see impacts. Also, the stronger the ridge, the more likely the wave will be more suppressed.
This wave might become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm or stay as a broad area of low-pressure to bring plenty of moisture into the Gulf, as well. As of now, it looks like rain chances associated with this will be confined to areas near the coast or south of I-10.
An area showers and thunderstorms, dubbed Invest 98L, have become more organized and are located a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verdes Islands. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as it moves west-northwestward. The NHC is giving it a 70-percent chance over the next 2 days and a 70-pecent chance over the next 7 days. Later next week it will move into an environment with higher wind shear where development should cease.
West of Invest 98L is Invest 99L that is a more disorganized area of broad low-pressure. It is between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verdes Islands. This will move generally west-northwestward and may become a tropical depression over the next several days. The NHC is giving it a 40-percent chance over the next 2 days and a 40-pecent chance over the next 7 days. It should encounter higher shear as well later which would limit further development.
Disturbance East off Lesser Antilles
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms within a trough of lower pressure could possibly become an area of low-pressure heading into next week. Development would be slow to occur and wind shear could be an issue as it moves west-northwestward. The NHC is giving it a 10-percent chance over the next 2 days and a 30-pecent chance over the next 7 days.