Invest 92L has been the topic of concern over the past few days. It’s a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche of the coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has given the disturbance a 90% chance of formation over the next two and five days, so formation is becoming more and more likely.
The forecast with this invest has been a little tricky, and there is still a lot of uncertainty, because there is not a clear center of circulation. As of this morning, clouds are starting to wrap around the low, which indicates some possible development. The Hurricane Hunters are planning on investigating this storms today, and that should provide more on what we could see.
Regardless of development, we are expecting this system to move into the northern Gulf, producing storms, heavy rain and gusty winds. Models place the low anywhere from the Louisiana-Texas border to Plaquemines Parish. If this system stays to our west, our impacts would be greater. That means heavy rain and gusty winds will be likely. If the system strays to the east, then our impacts would be minimal. As the system moves into the northern Gulf, we’ll know more.
Rainfall totals over the next seven days could be 4-7″ in the Baton Rouge metro, but this could change depending on where outer bands fall.
Now is the time to have a plan in place. Be sure to follow along for updates.