Clouds and moisture have been increasing over the area this morning associated with a warm front near the coast that will drift northward during the day. Showers and storms will move into the area nearing the afternoon hours and persist into the night towards early Friday morning. Flash flooding will be a threat with training as shower and storm motion will be from the southwest to northeast. There is a slight risk (2/4) over the area for excessive rainfall with rain totals around 1″ to 3″ with locally heavier amounts possible.
In terms of severe weather for today, there is a marginal risk (1/5) placed around the 10 and 12 corridor and southward. Instability will be more confined to coastal area, but there will be sufficient wind shear well inland. Moisture will be increasing with dewpoints into the upper 60s. This introduces the threat of a few strong to severe discrete storm cells. The main threats will be strong to severe wind gusts and a brief spin-up tornado.
Temperatures today will warm up to to low-to-mid 70s under high amounts of cloud cover. Overnight low will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Once the first round of showers and storms moves through, there will be a drying period during the middle part of the day. The surface low over Texas will begin to move northeastward during the night. As it does so, the associated warm front will move over the area. Some showers and isolated storms are possible with this during the overnight hours.
The day will be cloudy with high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Dewpoints will be in the 60s to allow humid conditions during the day. Overnight lows will be n the upper 50s and low 60s.
The cold front associated with the surface low will begin to move through the area. A line of showers and storms is expected to move eastward over the area beginning in the morning to afternoon hours.
The severe threat will be similar to that of Thursday. There is the possibility of strong to severe wind gusts and a brief spin tornado. The SPC has placed most of the area under a marginal risk (1/5)
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