As we continue further through September, the Atlantic remains active with Hurricane Nigel over open waters. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also watching two other areas for possible tropical development.
Nigel is currently a category 1 hurricane with maximum winds at 80 mph and is located well east-southeast of Bermuda over the open Atlantic. The storm is attempting to organize a core Monday evening, and the sooner it does so, the sooner it could strengthen as it moves over warm waters.
The forecast from the NHC shows Nigel moving around a ridge of high pressure to its east as the storm storm curves out over open waters well east away from Bermuda. The storm is forecast to become a category 2 storm before is speeds up and moves to the northeast while weakening. Thankfully, this storm will not have any land impacts.
A cold front has moved past the Southeastern U.S. and sits over the Gulf, through Florida, and over the Western Atlantic as of Monday evening. This front will not move too much over the next few days as moisture piles up over the area. By the end of the week, a non-tropical low may form along this front just east of Florida. This would be non-tropical as the low would have fronts attached to the low.
The low will move to the north-northeast through the weekend, and if it stays over the warm water longer and sheds its fronts, it could start to gain some subtropical characteristics. Subtropical storms share characteristics of both tropical cyclones (deep warm-cores) and extratropical cyclones (deep cold-cores).
Regardless of its classification, this system could bring some elevated rainfall to portions of the Southeast Coast as well as maybe some gusty winds and higher seas. Per the Monday 7 PM outlook, there is a 30-percent chance for tropical development over the next 7 days. For interests along the Eastern Coast, make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast.
African Tropical Wave
There is a tropical wave that will be exiting the coast of Africa over the coming days. The NHC is watching this for some development as it moves over the Central Atlantic into a somewhat favorable environment. A tropical depression could form as early as the end of the week into the weekend. There is a 70-percent chance for development over the next 7 days.