Potential Tropical Cyclone Three heads for the Gulf Coast

Tracking the Tropics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is getting closer and closer to Louisiana, and it is expect to bring heavy rain to the gulf states.

The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Thursday afternoon. Although the system is not a true tropical cyclone, it is still favorable to become either a tropical depression or a tropical storm. If it becomes a tropical storm it would be named Claudette. The disturbance is currently in the off the coast off Louisiana – about 125 miles south of Morgan City. It is forecast to make landfall along the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana as a weak tropical storm late Friday night or early Saturday morning.

This system is very lopsided and sloppy. Most of the rain activity extends well-east of the center, and this is where the greatest impacts will be felt.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect until further notice for areas from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida line. This includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. The warning also includes Ascension, Assumption, Livingston, and southern Tangipahoa Parishes. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for areas surrounding Lake Maurepas and Lake Ponchartrain until Saturday night. These areas may experience minor coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for coastal Louisiana. Inundation of 2-3′ is expected, mainly during high tide cycles.

A Flash Flood Watch is in place for portions of southeast Louisiana. Widespread rain totals are expected to be around 1-3″ with locally higher amounts. If there are bands of heavy rain, then there could be ponding or localized flooding. The highest rain totals are expected along and east of I-55. We will have to monitor local waterways.

Baton Rouge metro and surrounding areas potential impacts:

Heavy Rain: Heavy rain will be our main concern. The heaviest rain will be offset from the center of the storm northeast of the center of circulation.

Strong Wind Gusts: Wind gusts over 20 mph will be possible, especially within rain bands, but this is not a large threat. Wind gusts will be highest in coastal parishes.

Coastal Flooding: Minor flooding is expected for areas surrounding the tidal lakes, mainly during high tide cycles.

Spin-up Tornadoes: A few spin-up tornadoes are possible Friday as rain bands move ashore, but this is another low threat.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of southeast Louisiana under a general risk for thunderstorms. Other areas, generally east of East Baton Rouge, are under a marginal risk for strong to severe storms. The threat for severe weather will shift farther east on Saturday.

Always have a game plan and stay prepared. Follow along for updates, and be sure to download our free BR Proud app for the latest information.


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