Tropical Update: Dorian continues to stall over Grand Bahama Island, but forecast to move again later today

Tropics Watch

The latest update at 5 a.m. EDT shows Hurricane Dorian still stationary with max winds of 120 mph. Dorian’s eye is located roughly 35 miles northeast of Freeport and 105 miles east of West Palm Beach.

The category 3 storm is forecast to make a slight northwest turn due to a much anticipated weakness in the upper-level subtropical ridge later today. Keep in mind only a small deviation of Dorian’s track can bring the storm onshore along the East Coast.

Wednesday night is the moment we’re all waiting for. A broad mid-latitude trough will dig south and push Dorian to the northeast, pushing the storm away from the coast.

Once Dorian tracks northeast the storm will skim the coast from Florida up to the Carolina’s. This will potentially cause dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and heavy rainfall all up the coast. Some locations could see isolated rain totals up to 15 inches in the Carolina’s.

We’re in peek hurricane season and a few more tropical disturbances have developed in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

Right off the coast of Africa roughly a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands there is a broad area of low pressure catching the National Hurricane Center’s eye.

The system is producing limited showers and storms but it forecast to become a tropical depression by mid-week. The system has a 90% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and a 90% chance over the next 5 days.

Out in the Mid Atlantic there is a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. The system is unorganized with no center of circulation, but gradual development is possible over the next few days. The system has a 30% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and a 30% chance over the next 5 days.

Down in the south-central Gulf of Mexico we have Potential Cyclone Seven that’s starting to organize. Environmental conditions are conducive for development and a tropical depression by the end of the day today before developing into a tropical storm by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move west-southwest towards to coast of Mexico, away from the northern Gulf Coast.

The next advisory will be released at 11 a.m. EDT.

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