The National Hurricane Center has their eye on a trough of low pressure set up in the southeast, and it’s likely to move southward by midweek toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.
By midweek a broad area of low pressure is likely to form once the system sinks south. Once over warm water, the ingredients will be available for a Tropical Depression to form along the northern Gulf Coast close to the Florida Panhandle.
Models do not agree with the strength nor the potential track of the area of low pressure so the next few days will be crucial. No matter what, this system will bring heavy rainfall to the Northern Gulf Coast later this week.
Development over next 48 hours: 0% low
Development over the next 5 days: 60% medium