Update: A flood watch is in effect until 12 AM Monday morning as heavy rainfall will continue throughout the day into the night. Already 3-5″ have fallen in and around the Baton Rouge area with more expected.
Showers will begin to enter the region early Sunday morning. With dewpoints rising into the low-to-mid 60s and temperatures reaching the low 70s in the afternoon, there will be some instability for isolated storms. The best area for instability will be near the immediate coast where dewpoints will get close to the upper 60s. These storms will most likely begin elevated before a few could become surfaced based during the afternoon when temperatures warm up. With this, there is a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather.
Threats: Wind shear will be modest over the area to support some supercells for the risk of tornadoes. However, the tornado threat is on the lower end with low probability, but a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out.
The higher threat will be that of damaging wind gusts of 58+ mph with some of the stronger storms. The greatest hail threat will not be over our are, but rather over near Eastern Texas and Southwestern Louisiana.
The biggest concern is going to be the heavy rainfall. Rain totals could range between 1-3″ with the heaviest near and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor. Locally heavier amounts up to 5″ are possible, especially if showers and storms begin to train over the same location for an extended period of time.
Flash flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying areas and places with poor drainage. Due to this flooding threat, there is a slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over most of Southern Louisiana. If you are driving during the day, stop and turn around at flooded roadways. Never drive through a flooded roadway or underpass.
Timing: The highest risk for severe weather will be in the afternoon to early evening hours. The bulk of the rain will begin to move out to the east towards the night hours with some lingering showers behind into Monday morning.
How to Prepare
Be sure to multiple ways to receive weather alerts and stay tuned to updated forecasts during the day. Make sure your phone is unmuted, charged, and turned on for WEA notifications.
Have a plan and a safe place to go to if a warning is issued for your location. Find a lower-level, interior room away from windows. Secure outdoor furniture and decor beforehand.
You can always check out the Interactive Radar here.
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