Update as of 3 p.m. – Tornado Watch has been cancelled for Southeast Louisiana.
Current radar shows a line of scattered showers and storms over the area.
BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) – A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through the region in the late morning into the afternoon. Some storms could be on the strong to severe side bringing a marginal risk (1/5) over the Baton Rouge area and a slight risk (2/5) near and east of the I-55 corridor from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for severe weather. The threat has shifted to the east from yesterday. It will take some time for storms to get strong and by then, the line will begin to push east of our area.
Potential Threats: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts are the main threat. There is the potential for spin up tornados with rotating storms that cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with some storms.
Timing: The main round of thunderstorms is set to roll in the morning into the afternoon.
Discussion: An upper-level low is situated over Northeastern Texas and will move northeastward throughout the day. On the southeastern side of the low is a jet streak, which has weakened a touch, over Louisiana. A mid-level jet streak is oriented south to north over Eastern Louisiana. Ahead of this shortwave, these jet streak features will favor some rising motion. However, this feature may not line up with other parameters to favor widespread severe weather near and east of the Mississippi River.
Near the surface, dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s are beginning to push onshore with winds from the southeast. Increased dewpoints (moisture) and continued daytime heating with temperatures reaching into the mid-to-upper 70s will help destabilized the atmosphere. The cold front is currently placed through South-Central Louisiana into the Gulf and will push eastward through the day. The warm front is currently along the coast. How far north the warm sector pushes inland will be a condition for severe weather.
Increased values of CAPE, available energy, are still offshore over the Gulf. As daytime heating kicks in, CAPE values nearing 500 to 1500 J/kg will move inland by the early afternoon. This will play a factor in storms being able to initiate. Moderate shear values are present with surface to 6 km shear at around 40 to 50 kts in Southeast Louisiana. This, along with decent helicity (a measure of spin in the atmosphere) values, presents a possibility of a few brief, spin up tornados.
Guidance is continuing on hinting at more robust convection near and east of the I-55 corridor as daytime heating kicks in, instability increases, and the warm sector moves more inland. The timing of the main round of storms to push into Southern Mississippi past I-55 looks to be in the afternoon into the early evening. The cold front will then begin to slow down as the surface low pulls to the north and northeast. This brings the threat for training of storms into Coastal Mississippi and Alabama for the possibility of flash flooding.
Over in the Baton Rouge area, isolated severe storms are still possible in the morning to afternoon as the cold front moves eastward. Some storm cells could produce locally heavy rainfall at times as precipitable water, a measure of moisture, values have increased above 1.5 inches.
How to Prepare: Be sure you have ways to receive weather alerts. Secure any loose outdoor Halloween decor. Be cautious when driving in rain and storms. Late afternoon and evening plans should be clear.
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