Baton Rouge, LA (WVLA) – The National Hurricane Center is giving a disturbance located over the Bay of Campeche a medium chance for formation through the next five days. Gradual development into a tropical or subtropical system will be possible as the disturbance moves northward in the coming days. The northern Gulf of Mexico does not have a very favorable environment for major development thanks to increased wind shear, so if a system were to develop, it would likely be relatively weak and lopsided. Hurricane Hunters may investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Once the Hurricane Hunters gather data on it, we will know much more.
Model guidance has been pointing toward a more eastward track with this potential system, which would put Baton Rouge on the “quieter” side. All in all, whether it develops or not, it would bring the threat for heavy rain, rough seas, gusty winds, and potentially severe weather for wherever it ends up. Residents from Louisiana to Florida will have to watch this carefully. Stay tuned for more updates!