Saturday is going to be another beautiful day to enjoy the outdoors. High pressure will be just east of the area allowing winds to be from the south and southeast around 10 to 15 mph. Winds gusts could even get up to 25 mph.
Winds from this direction will allow warmer and more humid air to arrive from the Gulf allowing for a warming trend over the Gulf Coast. High temperatures in the afternoon will reach into the the upper 60s and low 70s.
In the upper-levels, winds are out of the southwest which will bring in some high passing clouds during the day. However, the day will be mostly sunny.
Heading towards the night, continued southeasterly winds will be increasing the atmospheric moisture with dewpoints reaching into the upper 50s. Overnight lows will be warmer into the mid-to-upper 50s with winds still breezy. Clouds will also be increasing during the back half of the day through the night.
Rain chances increase greatly for the day as rainfall will last for most of the day. High pressure over the Western Atlantic will be the driving force for continued moisture flow into the region from the Gulf. Another area of high pressure will move into the Central Plains with a cold front ahead of it and a low pressure center over Eastern Texas. This setup will set the scene for showers and storms over the area.
Showers will begin to enter the region early Sunday morning. With dewpoints rising into the mid 60s and temperatures reaching the low 70s in the afternoon, there will be some instability for isolated storms. These storms will most likely begin elevated before a few could become surfaced based. With this, there is a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather.
Damaging wind gusts are possible along with some hail. Wind shear will be modest for a non-zero chance of an isolated tornado or two.
The biggest concern is going to be the heavy rainfall. Rain totals could range between 1.5-3″ with the heaviest near and north of the I-10/I-12 corridor. Locally heavier amounts up to 5″ are possible, especially if showers and storms begin to train over the same location for an extended period of time.
Flash flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying areas and places with poor drainage. Due to this flooding threat, there is a slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over most of Southern Louisiana. If you are driving during the day, stop and turn around at flooded roadways. Never drive through a flooded roadway or underpass.
Timing for the rain will begin Sunday morning and last during much of the day. Showers and storms will begin to thin out and clear into the evening and night hours. Lingering showers are possible into early Monday morning.
Heading into the night, winds might wind down a touch as the cold front boundary will stall over the area. There is some uncertainty with where exactly the boundary stall which could affect temperatures. With this stalled boundary, winds will remain from the southeast and dewpoints will be very close to the air temperatures. There is the possibility for fog development overnight Sunday into Monday morning.
Rain chances will remain elevated as general southwest upper-level flow remains for increased moisture with the stalled frontal boundary. Some showers are possible during the day Monday before more showers come Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front looks to come near Thursday to bring more rain and storm chances and a shot at some cooler air.