Saturday

Pleasant weather will continue to start the weekend. Skies will remain mostly clear with some increasing clouds towards the back half of the day. High pressure will control the nice conditions, but is moving to the east which will allow for winds to be out of the south and southeast. Through the day, those winds will be advecting warmer, moist air from the gulf.

The morning will start chilly with morning lows in the upper 40s and lows 50s. Temperatures will warm up quiet a bit with afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Dewpoints will be rising in the 50s, but relative humidity will remain bearable.

Overall, it will be a nice day for any outdoor activities, or to sit by the porch and enjoy some king cake.

Into the night, temperatures will fall into the mid 50s, warmer than the night before. With dewpoints only a few degrees below the temperatures, some light, patchy fog is possible in the overnight and early morning hours. Ahead of an incoming cold front, rain chances increase after midnight.

Light, patchy fog possible Saturday night and early Sunday morning ahead of rain from the cold front.

Sunday

A weak center of low pressure will form off the Rockies late Friday that will have an associated cold front stretched down through Texas. This front will be approaching late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A line of scattered showers and storms will follow along this front.

The timing of the front has a small amount of uncertainty depending on if it slows down. Showers and storms will develop over to the west and will move east over the area in the morning. The front should move through Southeast Louisiana by the end of day.

The severe weather threat with this front remains low. Although dewpoints will be in the upper 50s and even low 60s with lift from the front, other factors are limiting the potential. Synoptic dynamics (large-scale forcing) will be weak, along with weaker wind shear. Instability will be limited, but there should be enough for convective storms to form. Along the line could be isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain and lightning.

HRRR model run showings the main line of showers and storms moving through in the morning.

Precipitable water values will see a narrow corridor of values around 1″ to 1.5″ with the front that could favor some heavier rains. The heaviest rainfall totals will be more concentrated out to the west and northwest. Over Southeast Louisiana, totals could range between 0.25″ to 1″.

Increased cloud cover throughout the day and rainfall will help cool off temperatures. Highs will be in the mid-to-upper 60s with some areas may even hitting 70 degrees. Once the front passes through, temperatures will fall into the 50s by the evening. Overnight lows will be chilly in the mid-to-upper 40s.