There is quite the temperature flip that is occurring. During the last weekend into the work week, there were record setting high temperatures thanks to a ridge of high pressure that was parked over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The high temperatures overachieved most model guidance. Sunday and Monday broke the old records from 1919 while the high of 89° on Tuesday tied the record from 1919 as well.
That ridge of high pressure will move away towards the east as a longwave trough moves in from the west. With this upper-level trough, a cold front at the surface will move through Louisiana early Saturday morning. A slight chance of showers will accompany this front. With the frontal passage, a strong push of cold air advection will filter in with surface winds from the north.
Saturday will start cool with temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s before the front passes and highs will be limited in the upper 50s and low 60s. There is a slight chance for some passing showers with the front in the early morning hours. If you are planning to attend the Southern game on Saturday, make sure you dress warm. Temperatures will struggle to reach 60 degrees. If you are making the trip in the morning for the LSU game in Arkansas, dress in layers as the temperatures will be in the mid 30s and only warming into the mid 40s by the 4th quarter.
Sunday will be the coldest in the short term with morning lows dipping into the mid 30s to lower 40s. High temperatures will persist in the low 60s with mostly sunny skies.
The next frontal system will move through in the beginning of the work week Monday into Tuesday. There seems to be more moisture return ahead of the system near the coast with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. That could allow for a better chance for some shower and storm activity ahead of the front.
The frontal passage will reinforce the cold air to push morning lows back into the upper 30s starting next Wednesday with highs persisting into the upper 50s and low 60s. Northerly winds will keep the cold and dry air in place with below normal temperatures expected for most of the lower 48 November 15 to 19. In this period, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gives the Baton Rouge area has a 70 to 80-percent chance of below normal temperatures. The average high for this period of year is around 70° and the average low is near 47°.
Looking forward closer to Thanksgiving travel time between November 17th and 23rd, the cold snap remains for much of the country. The CPC gives our area a 50 to 60-percent chance for below normal temperatures. The average high for this period of year is around 69° and the average low is near 47°.